The supply side of natural rubber still has support, but it may gradually loosen over time, and the market is now beginning to trade this expectation. Entering June, the high temperature and drought situation have eased, and domestic and foreign production areas are in a stage of increasing raw material release. However, at this time, weather such as rainfall still frequently disrupts rubber cutting operations, and it is still several months before entering the high production period. The supply has not yet increased due to the low level of imported goods at the port. With the support of downstream demand replenishment, natural rubber in general trade warehouses continues to be depleted, but the social inventory volume is still relatively large.

However, recently due to speculative buying speculation, the price of rubber has risen too high, and it has basically remained flat in May. Some latex processing plants have even stopped production and reselling raw materials. The downstream tire and other rubber products industry mainly consumes inventory and has great resistance to high priced spot goods. As a result, Shanghai rubber quickly rose and fell back. As domestic and international production areas continue to cut, supply will continue to be released, putting pressure on raw material prices. Downstream demand is expected to weaken, and the marginal destocking speed will slow down. CICC Wealth Futures believes that the growth rate of natural rubber supply from June to August is expected to be higher than the growth rate of demand, and it is advisable to focus on short selling during high prices.